Upcoming NOX (Nitrogen Oxide) Regulations: Challenges for OEMs and Potential Delays

Upcoming NOx Regulations: Challenges for OEMs and Potential Delays

Fleets and Class 8 truck manufacturers are encountering numerous difficulties as they prepare for the forthcoming NOx (nitrogen oxide) regulations set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which will take effect in 2027.

According to Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum, the new EPA emissions rules, combined with proposed GHG (greenhouse gas) Phase 3 regulations and mandates from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), present significant regulatory considerations for manufacturers. Schaeffer stated that these regulations demand substantial increases in the useful life and warranty periods of vehicles, as well as lower emissions requirements, which have significant implications for overall fleet and OEM (original equipment manufacturer) business strategies.

Schaeffer believes that small fleets, consisting of 20 trucks or fewer, which make up 90% of the industry capacity, will face the toughest challenges. He explained that the decision-making process and perspectives of these smaller fleets differ from those of the top 100 carriers. With California implementing stricter NOx rules in 2024, the industry will have a few years of experience to understand the performance and characteristics of low-NOx trucks before the 2027 regulations come into effect.

Ann Rundle, vice president of electrification and autonomy for ACT Research, suggests that the industry will witness the refinement and optimization of existing emissions control systems. Rundle highlights the need to achieve a more complete burn in the combustion chamber, reducing the downstream treatment requirements. This includes utilizing proven solutions like cylinder deactivation, variable valve activation, and other engine designs, as well as reimagining the sequencing and performance of aftertreatment systems.

Rundle expects the implementation of dual dosing systems and the increased use of 48-volt systems to heat catalysts, resulting in a more complete conversion and reduced NOx emissions. These higher-powered systems will also ensure that aftertreatment systems are fully functional from the start, even when the truck is cold.

Developing next-generation NOx and GHG solutions will require substantial engineering efforts, but Rundle believes that the engine block itself will remain largely unchanged.

Rundle acknowledges that while there are technologies available today to address these challenges, implementing them is not a trivial task. The complexity of these systems will result in higher costs, estimated at an additional $25,000 to $30,000 per truck.

Scott Chowaniec, vice president of vocational products and EV for Rush Enterprises, emphasizes that truck dealerships are actively involved in the regulatory discussions with CARB and EPA. Rush Enterprises, representing Peterbilt and Navistar for Class 8 trucks, engages in meetings with OEM product teams to stay informed about the technical path and plan for infrastructure and resources at their facilities.

Chowaniec points out that the alignment of CARB and EPA standards is crucial, as California, Oregon, and Massachusetts will adopt CARB standards in the coming years. Compliance with these standards or the use of credits and mitigation measures will be necessary for operators.

He believes that meeting the new emissions reduction goals will require both new technologies and refinements of current systems. Chowaniec also anticipates a significant pre-buy ahead of 2027 as fleets seek to ensure compliance and sufficient operational capacity.

Meeting the new emissions regulations is not as simple as adding new equipment to achieve compliance, according to Michael Grahe, executive vice president of operations at Navistar. He highlights the complexity of powertrains and vehicles, which require integrated solutions to balance customer and regulatory expectations. Grahe notes that these complex and highly engineered systems aim to deliver the best performance, economy, simplicity, and serviceability while meeting increasingly stringent regulatory requirements.

In conclusion, the upcoming NOx regulations present significant challenges for fleets and Class 8 truck manufacturers. The industry is grappling with the need to meet stricter emissions standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by 2027. These regulations, along with other regulatory considerations such as GHG Phase 3 and CARB mandates, require manufacturers to make substantial changes to their vehicles to ensure compliance. Small fleets, in particular, face unique challenges in adapting to these regulations.

However, industry experts and stakeholders are actively working on solutions. They are focusing on refining and optimizing existing emissions control systems, exploring new technologies, and collaborating with regulatory agencies to align standards and streamline compliance efforts. These efforts come with a cost, as implementing these complex systems may result in higher prices for trucks.

Despite the challenges, the industry remains committed to reducing emissions and achieving decarbonization goals. While there are engineering and financial hurdles to overcome, manufacturers, fleets, and regulatory bodies are working together to find viable solutions. By leveraging innovative technologies and refining current systems, the industry aims to ensure American competitiveness, economic prosperity, and a cleaner and more sustainable future for the transportation sector.